Mastercard Incorporated

MA · Financial Services · · USD

579.21 USD

0.00 (-1.11%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 19:35 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 84

Momentum 72

Fundamental 78

Macro 64

Liquidity 52

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	83.8	30%
Momentum	72.2	15%
Fundamental	77.8	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	52.3	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	579.21
Stop Loss	559.45 (3.4%)
Target 1 (1:1)	598.97 (+3.4%)
Target 2 (2:1)	618.73 (+6.8%)

ATR(14)	9.88 (1.7%)
Risk per Share	19.76
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	21.3	-1.15
Momentum	72.2	+0.89
Quality	72.0	+0.88
Composite	55.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 16.37 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	31.8	18.0	+77% above
P/B Ratio	90.6	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	60.0%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

372.06

Market Price

579.21

Upside

-35.8%

Margin of Safety	-55.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	72,715,917,400
Terminal Value PV	250,772,892,602
Total Enterprise Value	323,488,810,002

Assumptions

Base FCF	12,652,441,801
Growth Rate (5yr)	14.1%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

48.22%

Full Kelly

24.11%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 74/100. Estimated win rate 62%, avg win 9.5%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

52.91

RSI(14)

8.7307

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+13.4% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High	No (9d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+10.0% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	52.91	NEUTRAL
Macd	8.7307	BEARISH
Ma Cross	557.57 / 529.08	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.65x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	601.62
Bollinger Upper	606.49
SMA(200)	529.08
SMA(50)	557.57
SMA(20)	579.68
Current Price	579.21
Bollinger Lower	552.87
52-Week Low	464.52
ATR(14)	9.88

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.15x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.21x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.83x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.82x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.65x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	589.97	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	578.64	Base line
Senkou A	584.31	Leading span A
Senkou B	543.32	Leading span B
Cloud	543.32 – 584.31	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	579.21	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	573.10	Bullish
Alignment Score	3/4	NEUTRAL