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MercadoLibre, Inc.

MELI · Consumer Cyclical · · USD
1978.36 USD
0.00 (-0.64%)
● Updated 2026-09-07 20:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)

60
/ 100
Technical 75
Trend & RS 67
Momentum 76
Fundamental 56
Macro 64
Liquidity 48
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 75.0 10%
Trend & RS 67.4 10%
Momentum 76.5 5%
Fundamental 55.6 40%
Macro 64.4 15%
Liquidity 47.9 20%

Trade Setup

Entry 1978.36
Stop Loss 1851.86 (6.4%)
Target 1 (1:1) 2104.86 (+6.4%)
Target 2 (2:1) 2231.36 (+12.8%)
ATR(14) 63.25 (3.2%)
Risk per Share 126.50
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 0.0 -2.00
Momentum 76.5 +1.06
Quality 41.1 -0.36
Composite 39.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 53.8 18.0 +199% above
P/B Ratio 12.8 2.5 Above

Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
1146.99
vs
Market Price
1978.36
Upside
-42.0%
Margin of Safety -72.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)11,467,090,860
Terminal Value PV46,681,676,868
Total Enterprise Value58,148,767,728

Assumptions

Base FCF1,492,513,830
Growth Rate (5yr)25.0%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%
Recommended Size
39.11%
Full Kelly
19.56%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 60/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.6%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
58.41
RSI(14)
40.6246
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

43
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (+18.4% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical)
RS New High No (2d since high)
Sector Outperformance +18.5% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 58.41 NEUTRAL
Macd 40.6246 BULLISH
Ma Cross 1857.67 / 1860.17 DEATH CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger MIDDLE
Volume 0.66x NORMAL

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High2548.50
Bollinger Upper2055.22
SMA(200)1860.17
SMA(50)1857.67
SMA(20)1912.68
Current Price1978.36
Bollinger Lower1770.14
52-Week Low1495.00
ATR(14)63.25

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-08-31 Normal 0.79x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01 Normal 0.76x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02 Normal 0.92x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03 Normal 1.01x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04 Normal 0.66x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 1983.00 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 1912.61 Base line
Senkou A 1947.80 Leading span A
Senkou B 1822.50 Leading span B
Cloud 1822.50 – 1947.80 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 1978.36 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 1877.95 Bullish
Alignment Score 4/4 BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH FADING
BB: 1770.14 – 2055.22  |  KC: 1811.51 – 2013.84

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Regular Bearish RSI 19
Regular Bearish MACD 19
Regular Bearish RSI 23

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 1753.79 Anchor: 2026-05-13 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +12.8%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

WEAKLY BEARISH Full data via /api/advanced/MELI

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap100.30B
P/E (TTM)53.76
Forward P/EN/A
P/B12.80
EPS36.80

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth49.8%
Profit Margin5.3%
ROE27.5%
Debt/Equity168.59
Current Ratio1.12
Dividend YieldN/A
Payout RatioN/A
Beta1.31

Trading Data

1978.36
Open
1978.36
Day High
1978.36
Day Low
281.9K
Volume (0.6x avg)

Recent News (8)

Is MercadoLibre Becoming Latin America's Leading Fintech?
Zacks · 2026-09-07
MercadoLibre (MELI) Up 8.8% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
Zacks · 2026-09-04
MercadoLibre Is Building the Infrastructure Latin America's Economy Will Run on for Decades. Here's Why That Makes It a Forever Hold.
Motley Fool · 2026-09-04
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Motley Fool · 2026-09-02
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Motley Fool · 2026-09-02
My 3 Favorite Growth Stocks to Buy Right Now
Motley Fool · 2026-09-01
The Market Keeps Punishing MercadoLibre for Growing Too Fast. Here's Why That's Exactly When to Buy.
Motley Fool · 2026-09-01
Coherent Stock And 2 AI Infrastructure Picks With Strong Cash Flow
Simply Wall St. · 2026-08-31

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —