MercadoLibre, Inc.
MELI · Consumer Cyclical · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
37
/ 100
Technical
40
Trend & RS
32
Momentum
33
Fundamental
56
Macro
22
Liquidity
89
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 40.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 31.9 | 30% |
| Momentum | 33.2 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 88.9 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 1530.28 |
| Stop Loss | 1372.74 (10.3%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 1687.82 (+10.3%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 1845.36 (+20.6%) |
| ATR(14) | 78.77 (5.2%) |
| Risk per Share | 157.54 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 12.8 | -1.49 | |
| Momentum | 30.2 | -0.79 | |
| Quality | 40.5 | -0.38 | |
| Composite | 27.8 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Overvalued
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 41.0 | 18.0 | +128% above |
| P/B Ratio | 9.5 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Consumer Cyclical median multiples.
Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
1161.95
vs
Market Price
1530.28
Upside
-24.1%
| Margin of Safety | -31.7% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 11,616,662,109 |
| Terminal Value PV | 47,290,570,335 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 58,907,232,444 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,511,981,466 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 25.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
22.33%
Full Kelly
11.17%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 37/100. Estimated win rate 51%, avg win 7.2%, avg loss 4.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary SELL
2
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
31.96
RSI(14)
-54.5117
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
17
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↓ FALLING (-11.0% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Cyclical) |
| RS New High | No (45d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -17.4% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 31.96 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -54.5117 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 1816.45 / 1805.04 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | LOWER BAND | |
| Volume | 3.32x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 2342.00 |
| Bollinger Upper | 1983.3 |
| SMA(200) | 1805.04 |
| SMA(50) | 1816.45 |
| SMA(20) | 1765.69 |
| Current Price | 1530.28 |
| Bollinger Lower | 1548.07 |
| 52-Week Low | 1469.01 |
| ATR(14) | 78.77 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKDOWN
Confidence
100%
Sign of Weakness
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 3.5
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 0.8x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 0.95x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.63x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.27x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 3.32x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 1618.49 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 1696.80 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 1657.65 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 1767.51 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 1657.65 – 1767.51 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 1530.28 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 1685.12 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 1548.07 – 1983.3 | KC: 1657.07 – 1874.3
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 1790.31
Anchor: 2026-08-13 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-14.5%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/MELI
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 77.58B |
| P/E (TTM) | 41.05 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 9.46 |
| EPS | 37.28 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 45.1% |
| Profit Margin | 4.9% |
| ROE | 26.2% |
| Debt/Equity | 197.37 |
| Current Ratio | 1.17 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.39 |
Trading Data
1530.28
Open
1530.28
Day High
1530.28
Day Low
2.15M
Volume (3.7x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)