NVIDIA Corporation

NVDA · Technology · · USD

206.46 USD

+0.00 (1.81%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 17:06 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 63

Momentum 60

Fundamental 89

Macro 71

Liquidity 50

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	10%
Trend & RS	63.3	10%
Momentum	60.5	5%
Fundamental	88.9	40%
Macro	71.2	15%
Liquidity	50.0	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	207.32
Stop Loss	193.43 (6.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	221.22 (+6.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	235.12 (+13.4%)

ATR(14)	6.95 (3.4%)
Risk per Share	13.90
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	14.3	-1.43
Momentum	60.5	+0.42
Quality	94.7	+1.79
Composite	56.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 239.15 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	31.6	28.0	+13% above
P/B Ratio	25.6	6.0	Above
Dividend Yield	49.0%	0.8%	Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value

203.53

Market Price

206.46

Upside

-1.4%

Margin of Safety	-1.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	972,142,942,501
Terminal Value PV	3,957,521,856,252
Total Enterprise Value	4,929,664,798,753

Assumptions

Base FCF	126,530,504,000
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

47.58%

Full Kelly

23.79%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 73/100. Estimated win rate 62%, avg win 9.4%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

54.01

RSI(14)

-2.0251

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (+1.7% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	No (38d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-3.0% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	54.01	NEUTRAL
Macd	-2.0251	BULLISH
Ma Cross	209.13 / 191.64	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.21x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	236.54
Bollinger Upper	213.46
SMA(200)	191.64
SMA(50)	209.13
SMA(20)	201.77
Current Price	206.46
Bollinger Lower	190.08
52-Week Low	162.02
ATR(14)	6.95

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.77x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.88x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	1.05x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.93x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	Normal	0.21x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	198.91	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	206.31	Base line
Senkou A	202.61	Leading span A
Senkou B	213.17	Leading span B
Cloud	202.61 – 213.17	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	207.32	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	214.75	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	NEUTRAL