NVIDIA Corporation

NVDA · Technology · · USD

219.44 USD

+0.00 (1.96%)

● Updated 2026-05-12 10:47 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 80

Trend & RS 92

Momentum 78

Fundamental (0%) 89

Macro 65

Liquidity 64

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	80.0	40%
Trend & RS	91.9	20%
Momentum	78.3	20%
Fundamental	88.9	0%
Macro	65.3	15%
Liquidity	64.1	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	219.44
Stop Loss	205.92 (6.2%)
Target 1 (1:1)	232.96 (+6.2%)
Target 2 (2:1)	246.48 (+12.3%)

ATR(14)	6.76 (3.1%)
Risk per Share	13.52
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	3.8	-1.85
Momentum	78.3	+1.13
Quality	99.1	+1.96
Composite	60.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 284.80 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	44.9	28.0	+60% above
P/B Ratio	33.9	6.0	Above
Dividend Yield	2.0%	0.8%	Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

152.41

Market Price

219.44

Upside

-30.5%

Margin of Safety	-44.0%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	730,365,094,751
Terminal Value PV	2,973,262,160,484
Total Enterprise Value	3,703,627,255,235

Assumptions

Base FCF	95,061,600,000
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

50.95%

Full Kelly

25.48%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 79/100. Estimated win rate 64%, avg win 9.7%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

68.47

RSI(14)

6.5699

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+8.7% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	No (10d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-26.0% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	68.47	NEUTRAL
Macd	6.5699	BULLISH
Ma Cross	189.49 / 184.95	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		UPPER BAND
Volume	1.05x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	222.30
Bollinger Upper	219.29
SMA(200)	184.95
SMA(50)	189.49
SMA(20)	204.69
Current Price	219.44
Bollinger Lower	190.08
52-Week Low	124.47
ATR(14)	6.76

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-05	Normal	0.75x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-06	Normal	1.24x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-07	Normal	1.11x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	0.9x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	1.05x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	208.52	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	197.98	Base line
Senkou A	203.25	Leading span A
Senkou B	193.29	Leading span B
Cloud	193.29 – 203.25	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	219.44	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	177.64	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH