NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA · Technology · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
47
/ 100
Technical
50
Trend & RS
51
Momentum
20
Fundamental
89
Macro
23
Liquidity
100
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 50.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 51.3 | 30% |
| Momentum | 19.8 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 88.9 | 10% |
| Macro | 23.3 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 100.0 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 181.60 |
| Stop Loss | 166.92 (8.1%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 196.28 (+8.1%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 210.96 (+16.2%) |
| ATR(14) | 7.34 (4.0%) |
| Risk per Share | 14.68 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 30.0 | -0.80 | |
| Momentum | 18.0 | -1.28 | |
| Quality | 100.0 | +2.00 | |
| Composite | 49.3 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
73.44
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.0 | 28.0 | -18% below |
| P/B Ratio | 19.1 | 6.0 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 55.0% | 0.8% | Above avg |
Comparing against Technology median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued
Intrinsic Value
246.54
vs
Market Price
181.60
Upside
+35.8%
| Margin of Safety | +26.3% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 1,173,990,391,146 |
| Terminal Value PV | 4,779,227,857,203 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 5,953,218,248,349 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 152,802,216,000 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 25.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
30.19%
Full Kelly
15.1%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 47/100. Estimated win rate 54%, avg win 7.8%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
3
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
25.4
RSI(14)
-7.2114
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING
65
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↓ FALLING (-13.8% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Technology) |
| RS New High | No (23d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -24.5% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAKENING:
Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 25.4 | OVERSOLD |
| Macd | -7.2114 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 220.59 / 204.38 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | LOWER BAND | |
| Volume | 2.69x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 243.37 |
| Bollinger Upper | 235.67 |
| SMA(200) | 204.38 |
| SMA(50) | 220.59 |
| SMA(20) | 213.68 |
| Current Price | 181.60 |
| Bollinger Lower | 191.69 |
| 52-Week Low | 164.27 |
| ATR(14) | 7.34 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKDOWN
Confidence
100%
Sign of Weakness
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 3.5
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.49x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.06x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 0.82x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.32x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Stopping Volume | 2.69x | High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume) |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 200.73 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 212.42 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 206.57 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 212.42 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 206.57 – 212.42 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 181.60 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 230.86 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 191.69 – 235.67 | KC: 203.03 – 224.32
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 10 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 209.75
Anchor: 2026-03-30 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-13.4%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/NVDA
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 4385.10B |
| P/E (TTM) | 22.96 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 19.15 |
| EPS | 7.91 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 1.1% |
| Profit Margin | 63.7% |
| ROE | 1.2% |
| Debt/Equity | 16.97 |
| Current Ratio | 4.59 |
| Dividend Yield | 55.0% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 2.25 |
Trading Data
181.60
Open
181.60
Day High
181.60
Day Low
301.62M
Volume (2.6x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)