NVIDIA Corporation

NVDA · Technology · · USD

225.83 USD

+0.00 (2.29%)

● Updated 2026-05-14 11:17 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 67

Trend & RS 94

Momentum 82

Fundamental 89

Macro 72

Liquidity 62

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	66.7	20%
Trend & RS	93.5	30%
Momentum	81.6	15%
Fundamental	88.9	10%
Macro	71.8	20%
Liquidity	62.2	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	225.83
Stop Loss	211.99 (6.1%)
Target 1 (1:1)	239.67 (+6.1%)
Target 2 (2:1)	253.51 (+12.3%)

ATR(14)	6.92 (3.1%)
Risk per Share	13.84
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	2.9	-1.88
Momentum	81.6	+1.26
Quality	99.1	+1.96
Composite	61.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 291.97 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	46.1	28.0	+65% above
P/B Ratio	34.9	6.0	Above
Dividend Yield	2.0%	0.8%	Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

152.72

Market Price

225.83

Upside

-32.4%

Margin of Safety	-47.9%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	729,465,091,134
Terminal Value PV	2,969,598,312,479
Total Enterprise Value	3,699,063,403,613

Assumptions

Base FCF	94,944,458,882
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

51.51%

Full Kelly

25.76%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 80/100. Estimated win rate 64%, avg win 9.8%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

72.13

RSI(14)

7.9338

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) STRONG RS

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+11.3% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal
Sector Outperformance	-12.9% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

STRONG RS: Top performer — outperforming the market and making new relative highs. Institutional accumulation likely.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	72.13	OVERBOUGHT
Macd	7.9338	BULLISH
Ma Cross	191.18 / 185.43	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		UPPER BAND
Volume	0.99x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	227.84
Bollinger Upper	224.94
SMA(200)	185.43
SMA(50)	191.18
SMA(20)	207.25
Current Price	225.83
Bollinger Lower	189.56
52-Week Low	129.16
ATR(14)	6.92

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-05-07	Normal	1.12x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-08	Normal	0.91x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-11	Normal	1.07x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-12	Normal	1.06x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-05-13	Normal	0.99x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	211.29	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	204.07	Base line
Senkou A	207.68	Leading span A
Senkou B	196.06	Leading span B
Cloud	196.06 – 207.68	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	225.83	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	182.08	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH