NVIDIA Corporation

NVDA · Technology · · USD

202.78 USD

0.00 (-0.66%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 16:06 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 63

Momentum 58

Fundamental 89

Macro 78

Liquidity 62

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	20%
Trend & RS	62.9	30%
Momentum	58.0	15%
Fundamental	88.9	10%
Macro	78.4	20%
Liquidity	61.9	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	202.78
Stop Loss	188.74 (6.9%)
Target 1 (1:1)	216.82 (+6.9%)
Target 2 (2:1)	230.86 (+13.8%)

ATR(14)	7.02 (3.5%)
Risk per Share	14.04
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	14.7	-1.41
Momentum	58.0	+0.32
Quality	94.7	+1.79
Composite	55.8

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 7 /9 — Strong

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 234.98 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	31.1	28.0	+11% above
P/B Ratio	25.1	6.0	Above
Dividend Yield	49.0%	0.8%	Above avg

Comparing against Technology median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value

203.53

Market Price

202.78

Upside

+0.4%

Margin of Safety	+0.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	972,142,942,501
Terminal Value PV	3,957,521,856,252
Total Enterprise Value	4,929,664,798,753

Assumptions

Base FCF	126,530,504,000
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

45.86%

Full Kelly

22.93%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 70/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.2%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

49.67

RSI(14)

-2.8042

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-0.1% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Technology)
RS New High	No (37d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-36.5% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	49.67	NEUTRAL
Macd	-2.8042	BULLISH
Ma Cross	209.24 / 191.53	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.89x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	236.54
Bollinger Upper	212.83
SMA(200)	191.53
SMA(50)	209.24
SMA(20)	201.42
Current Price	202.78
Bollinger Lower	190.02
52-Week Low	162.02
ATR(14)	7.02

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

ACCUMULATION E Confidence

50%

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 1.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-02	Normal	0.96x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-06	Normal	0.74x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.84x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	1.0x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.89x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	197.48	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	211.04	Base line
Senkou A	204.26	Leading span A
Senkou B	213.17	Leading span B
Cloud	204.26 – 213.17	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	202.78	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	222.82	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH