ON Semiconductor Corporation
ON · Technology · · USDFahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)
40
/ 100
Technical
20
Trend & RS
56
Momentum
10
Fundamental
89
Macro
22
Liquidity
84
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 20.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 56.4 | 30% |
| Momentum | 9.8 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 88.9 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 83.9 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 63.01 |
| Stop Loss | 54.65 (13.3%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 71.37 (+13.3%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 79.73 (+26.5%) |
| ATR(14) | 4.18 (6.6%) |
| Risk per Share | 8.36 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 53.9 | +0.16 | |
| Momentum | 8.9 | -1.64 | |
| Quality | 55.5 | +0.22 | |
| Composite | 39.4 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
5.43
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.9 | 28.0 | +32% above |
| P/B Ratio | 3.2 | 6.0 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% | 0.8% | Below avg |
Comparing against Technology median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
30.98
vs
Market Price
63.01
Upside
-50.8%
| Margin of Safety | -103.4% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 2,820,616,369 |
| Terminal Value PV | 9,238,501,016 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 12,059,117,385 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 532,541,181 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 11.1% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
24.76%
Full Kelly
12.38%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 40/100. Estimated win rate 52%, avg win 7.4%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG SELL
1
Bullish Signals
4
Bearish Signals
33.56
RSI(14)
-1.928
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
90
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (-17.4% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Technology) |
| RS New High | No (23d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -28.1% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 33.56 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -1.928 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 74.45 / 82.56 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | LOWER BAND | |
| Volume | 2.34x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 134.92 |
| Bollinger Upper | 80.41 |
| SMA(200) | 82.56 |
| SMA(50) | 74.45 |
| SMA(20) | 73.63 |
| Current Price | 63.01 |
| Bollinger Lower | 66.86 |
| 52-Week Low | 44.56 |
| ATR(14) | 4.18 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKDOWN
Confidence
100%
Sign of Weakness
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 3.5
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.49x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.13x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.4x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 0.97x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Stopping Volume | 2.34x | High volume down-bar closing near low — potential climax (Stopping Volume) |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 71.03 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 74.84 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 72.93 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 74.84 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 72.93 – 74.84 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 63.01 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 80.08 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 66.86 – 80.41 | KC: 67.6 – 79.67
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 80.72
Anchor: 2025-11-21 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-21.9%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/ON
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 24.53B |
| P/E (TTM) | 36.85 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 3.24 |
| EPS | 1.71 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 11.1% |
| Profit Margin | 10.8% |
| ROE | 8.9% |
| Debt/Equity | 62.10 |
| Current Ratio | 3.55 |
| Dividend Yield | N/A |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 2.15 |
Trading Data
63.01
Open
63.01
Day High
63.01
Day Low
26.04M
Volume (2.5x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)