PACCAR Inc
PCAR · Industrials · · USDFahodi Score STRONG SELL Mid-term (Position)
33
/ 100
Technical
25
Trend & RS
23
Momentum
36
Fundamental
78
Macro
22
Liquidity
68
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 25.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 22.7 | 30% |
| Momentum | 36.1 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 77.8 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 68.1 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 104.50 |
| Stop Loss | 98.48 (5.8%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 110.52 (+5.8%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 116.54 (+11.5%) |
| ATR(14) | 3.01 (2.9%) |
| Risk per Share | 6.02 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 72.2 | +0.89 | |
| Momentum | 32.8 | -0.69 | |
| Quality | 62.1 | +0.49 | |
| Composite | 55.7 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
7
/9 —
Strong
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.9 | 18.0 | +11% above |
| P/B Ratio | 2.6 | 3.0 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% | 2.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Industrials median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued
Intrinsic Value
130.01
vs
Market Price
104.50
Upside
+24.4%
| Margin of Safety | +19.6% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 14,470,912,484 |
| Terminal Value PV | 53,980,495,897 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 68,451,408,381 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 2,207,110,333 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 19.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
18.66%
Full Kelly
9.33%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 33/100. Estimated win rate 50%, avg win 7.0%, avg loss 4.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG SELL
1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
40.52
RSI(14)
-2.6527
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS
19
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | ↓ FALLING (-16.3% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | UNDERPERFORMING (Industrials) |
| RS New High | No (61d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | -19.4% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
WEAK RS:
Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 40.52 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -2.6527 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 112.74 / 119.37 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | BELOW SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.52x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 139.24 |
| Bollinger Upper | 112.89 |
| SMA(200) | 119.37 |
| SMA(50) | 112.74 |
| SMA(20) | 106.49 |
| Current Price | 104.50 |
| Bollinger Lower | 100.09 |
| 52-Week Low | 93.86 |
| ATR(14) | 3.01 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKDOWN
Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 0.0 |
Markdown: 2.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.17x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.05x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.38x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.27x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.52x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 104.46 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 106.39 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 105.42 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 115.52 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 105.42 – 115.52 | Bearish (Red) |
| Price vs Cloud | 104.50 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 109.94 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 0/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH
BB: 100.09 – 112.89 | KC: 102.18 – 110.79
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 21 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 117.35
Anchor: 2025-11-17 (52w Low)
BELOW AVWAP
-10.9%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
WEAKLY BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/PCAR
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 55.02B |
| P/E (TTM) | 19.94 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.63 |
| EPS | 5.24 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 19.0% |
| Profit Margin | 9.5% |
| ROE | 13.7% |
| Debt/Equity | 72.15 |
| Current Ratio | 5.47 |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.96 |
Trading Data
104.50
Open
104.50
Day High
104.50
Day Low
5.52M
Volume (1.7x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)