PACCAR Inc

PCAR · Industrials · · USD

122.77 USD

0.00 (-1.55%)

● Updated 2026-09-08 21:06 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 69

Momentum 54

Fundamental 67

Macro 64

Liquidity 38

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	20%
Trend & RS	69.1	30%
Momentum	54.4	15%
Fundamental	66.7	10%
Macro	64.4	20%
Liquidity	38.1	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	122.78
Stop Loss	117.14 (4.6%)
Target 1 (1:1)	128.41 (+4.6%)
Target 2 (2:1)	134.06 (+9.2%)

ATR(14)	2.82 (2.3%)
Risk per Share	5.64
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	62.7	+0.51
Momentum	54.4	+0.18
Quality	61.2	+0.45
Composite	59.4

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	25.9	18.0	+44% above
P/B Ratio	3.2	3.0	Inline
Dividend Yield	1.1%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

58.64

Market Price

122.77

Upside

-52.2%

Margin of Safety	-109.4%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	8,231,388,859
Terminal Value PV	22,633,381,543
Total Enterprise Value	30,864,770,402

Assumptions

Base FCF	2,000,186,845
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

39.64%

Full Kelly

19.82%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 60/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.6%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

38.32

RSI(14)

-1.509

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (-0.2% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Industrials)
RS New High	No (29d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+4.1% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	38.32	NEUTRAL
Macd	-1.509	BEARISH
Ma Cross	127.63 / 119.24	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.34x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	139.24
Bollinger Upper	134.15
SMA(200)	119.24
SMA(50)	127.63
SMA(20)	127.6
Current Price	122.77
Bollinger Lower	121.05
52-Week Low	92.25
ATR(14)	2.82

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

DISTRIBUTION B Confidence

67%

Volume Dry-Up (Distribution)

Acc: 1.0 | Dist: 2.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-09-01	Normal	1.07x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.36x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.15x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.75x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-08	Normal	0.34x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	126.08	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	128.79	Base line
Senkou A	127.43	Leading span A
Senkou B	128.21	Leading span B
Cloud	127.43 – 128.21	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	122.78	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	131.71	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH