PACCAR Inc

PCAR · Industrials · · USD

124.70 USD

+0.00 (0.15%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:06 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 50

Trend & RS 70

Momentum 58

Fundamental (0%) 67

Macro 64

Liquidity 44

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	50.0	40%
Trend & RS	69.9	20%
Momentum	57.5	20%
Fundamental	66.7	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	43.6	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	124.70
Stop Loss	118.94 (4.6%)
Target 1 (1:1)	130.46 (+4.6%)
Target 2 (2:1)	136.22 (+9.2%)

ATR(14)	2.88 (2.3%)
Risk per Share	5.76
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	62.0	+0.48
Momentum	57.5	+0.30
Quality	61.2	+0.45
Composite	60.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	26.2	18.0	+46% above
P/B Ratio	3.2	3.0	Inline
Dividend Yield	1.1%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Industrials median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

58.64

Market Price

124.70

Upside

-53.0%

Margin of Safety	-112.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	8,231,388,528
Terminal Value PV	22,633,380,631
Total Enterprise Value	30,864,769,159

Assumptions

Base FCF	2,000,186,765
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

37.64%

Full Kelly

18.82%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 57/100. Estimated win rate 57%, avg win 8.4%, avg loss 3.9%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

42.57

RSI(14)

-1.3598

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (+2.5% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Industrials)
RS New High	No (28d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+6.9% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	42.57	NEUTRAL
Macd	-1.3598	BEARISH
Ma Cross	127.59 / 119.1	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.72x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	139.24
Bollinger Upper	134.3
SMA(200)	119.1
SMA(50)	127.59
SMA(20)	128.01
Current Price	124.70
Bollinger Lower	121.71
52-Week Low	92.25
ATR(14)	2.88

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.07x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.03x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.31x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.11x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.72x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	126.08	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	128.79	Base line
Senkou A	127.43	Leading span A
Senkou B	127.44	Leading span B
Cloud	127.43 – 127.44	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	124.70	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	132.33	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH