Phillips 66

PSX · Energy · · USD

189.82 USD

+0.00 (1.07%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 16:09 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 80

Trend & RS 95

Momentum 84

Fundamental 67

Macro 78

Liquidity 49

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	80.0	20%
Trend & RS	94.7	30%
Momentum	83.8	15%
Fundamental	66.7	10%
Macro	78.4	20%
Liquidity	48.9	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	189.82
Stop Loss	178.82 (5.8%)
Target 1 (1:1)	200.82 (+5.8%)
Target 2 (2:1)	211.82 (+11.6%)

ATR(14)	5.50 (2.9%)
Risk per Share	11.00
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	73.5	+0.94
Momentum	83.8	+1.35
Quality	31.1	-0.76
Composite	62.8

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	18.6	10.0	+86% above
P/B Ratio	2.7	1.5	Above
Dividend Yield	2.7%	4.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Energy median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

155.71

Market Price

189.82

Upside

-18.0%

Margin of Safety	-21.9%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	15,482,018,065
Terminal Value PV	46,946,815,547
Total Enterprise Value	62,428,833,612

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,281,252,063
Growth Rate (5yr)	6.9%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

52.5%

Full Kelly

26.25%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 82/100. Estimated win rate 65%, avg win 9.9%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

67.62

RSI(14)

2.1367

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) STRONG RS

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+2.3% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Energy)
RS New High	✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal
Sector Outperformance	+10.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

STRONG RS: Top performer — outperforming the market and making new relative highs. Institutional accumulation likely.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	67.62	NEUTRAL
Macd	2.1367	BULLISH
Ma Cross	175.7 / 152.71	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		UPPER BAND
Volume	0.87x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	190.66
Bollinger Upper	187.76
SMA(200)	152.71
SMA(50)	175.7
SMA(20)	174.82
Current Price	189.82
Bollinger Lower	161.88
52-Week Low	118.07
ATR(14)	5.5

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-02	Normal	0.66x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-06	Normal	0.65x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.85x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	1.28x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.87x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	179.75	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	177.38	Base line
Senkou A	178.56	Leading span A
Senkou B	174.78	Leading span B
Cloud	174.78 – 178.56	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	189.82	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	182.56	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH