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Phillips 66

PSX · Energy · · USD
191.42 USD
+0.00 (0.82%)
● Updated 2026-07-10 17:09 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh
Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Mid-term (Position)

80
/ 100
Technical 80
Trend & RS 95
Momentum 85
Fundamental 67
Macro 71
Liquidity 39
ComponentScoreWeight
Technical 80.0 20%
Trend & RS 95.2 30%
Momentum 84.8 15%
Fundamental 66.7 10%
Macro 71.2 20%
Liquidity 38.9 5%

Trade Setup

Entry 191.94
Stop Loss 181.28 (5.5%)
Target 1 (1:1) 202.60 (+5.5%)
Target 2 (2:1) 213.26 (+11.1%)
ATR(14) 5.33 (2.8%)
Risk per Share 10.66
Reward:Risk 2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor Score Z Bar
Value 73.2 +0.93
Momentum 84.8 +1.39
Quality 31.1 -0.76
Composite 63.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average
✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓
1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

MetricStockSectorvs Peers
P/E Ratio 18.7 10.0 +87% above
P/B Ratio 2.7 1.5 Above
Dividend Yield 2.7% 4.0% Below avg

Comparing against Energy median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value
155.71
vs
Market Price
191.42
Upside
-18.7%
Margin of Safety -22.9%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)15,482,018,696
Terminal Value PV46,946,817,464
Total Enterprise Value62,428,836,160

Assumptions

Base FCF3,281,252,197
Growth Rate (5yr)6.9%
Terminal Growth2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%
Recommended Size
51.57%
Full Kelly
25.78%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 80/100. Estimated win rate 64%, avg win 9.8%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

4
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
69.32
RSI(14)
3.0458
MACD

Relative Strength (RS) STRONG RS

87
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
RS vs SPY ↑ RISING (+9.0% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector OUTPERFORMING (Energy)
RS New High ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal
Sector Outperformance +14.6% (3M)
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older newer →
RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS
STRONG RS: Top performer — outperforming the market and making new relative highs. Institutional accumulation likely.

Technical Indicators

IndicatorValueSignal
Rsi 69.32 NEUTRAL
Macd 3.0458 BULLISH
Ma Cross 176.26 / 153.04 GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger UPPER BAND
Volume 0.04x LOW

Key Levels

LevelPrice
52-Week High193.04
Bollinger Upper190.1
SMA(200)153.04
SMA(50)176.26
SMA(20)175.33
Current Price191.42
Bollinger Lower160.57
52-Week Low118.07
ATR(14)5.33

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence
100%
Acc: 0.0  |  Dist: 0.0  |  Markup: 2.0  |  Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

DateSignalVolDescription
2026-07-06 Normal 0.67x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07 Normal 0.87x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08 Normal 1.33x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09 Normal 0.9x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10 Normal 0.04x Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

LineValueStatus
Tenkan-sen (9) 180.94 Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26) 178.57 Base line
Senkou A 179.75 Leading span A
Senkou B 177.50 Leading span B
Cloud 177.50 – 179.75 Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud 191.94 Above Cloud
Chikou Span 184.68 Bullish
Alignment Score 4/4 BULLISH

TTM Squeeze & Divergences

TTM Squeeze

SQUEEZE OFF No squeeze Momentum: BULLISH
BB: 160.57 – 190.1  |  KC: 167.43 – 183.24

Divergences (last 60 bars)

TypeIndicatorBars AgoStrength
Regular Bearish RSI 26

Anchored VWAP

VWAP: 151.25 Anchor: 2025-08-11 (52w Low) ABOVE AVWAP +26.9%

Heikin-Ashi Trend

BULLISH Full data via /api/advanced/PSX

Valuation

MetricValue
Market Cap76.75B
P/E (TTM)18.71
Forward P/EN/A
P/B2.69
EPS10.23

Financial Health

MetricValue
Revenue Growth6.9%
Profit Margin3.1%
ROE14.5%
Debt/Equity91.39
Current Ratio1.13
Dividend Yield2.7%
Payout RatioN/A
Beta0.68

Trading Data

191.42
Open
191.42
Day High
191.42
Day Low
80.3K
Volume (0.0x avg)

Recent News (8)

Phillips 66 (PSX) Beats Stock Market Upswing: What Investors Need to Know
Zacks · 2026-07-09
Can Valero Energy Benefit From Renewed Middle East Tensions?
Zacks · 2026-07-09
What Do Renewed Middle East Tensions Mean for Phillips 66's Business?
Zacks · 2026-07-09
Phillips 66 (PSX) Could Be 3% Undervalued After Oil Spiked On Middle East Tensions
Simply Wall St. · 2026-07-09
Phillips 66 (PSX) Stock Faces Higher Crude Costs After U.S. Strikes On Iran
Simply Wall St. · 2026-07-09
CVX Handed Shareholders $115 Bil In Five Years
Trefis · 2026-07-08
Gasoline Prices Could Swing Higher Again. It’s Not Just Iran.
Barrons.com · 2026-07-08
Update: US Equity Indexes Decline, Crude Oil Jumps as Trump's Threats to Strike Iran Again Elevate Geopolitical Risk
MT Newswires · 2026-07-08

Price Chart (90 Days)

Candlesticks (green=up, red=down) SMA 20 SMA 50 Bollinger Bands (upper/lower) Volume (green=buying, red=selling)
Powered by Fahodi Methodology. This is analytical output, not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.  ·  Pipeline status  ·  Data: —