Phillips 66

PSX · Energy · · USD

255.09 USD

+0.00 (0.17%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 19:36 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score STRONG BUY Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 80

Trend & RS 99

Momentum 95

Fundamental (0%) 67

Macro 64

Liquidity 52

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	80.0	40%
Trend & RS	99.2	20%
Momentum	95.4	20%
Fundamental	66.7	0%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	52.0	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	255.09
Stop Loss	240.97 (5.5%)
Target 1 (1:1)	269.21 (+5.5%)
Target 2 (2:1)	283.33 (+11.1%)

ATR(14)	7.06 (2.8%)
Risk per Share	14.12
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	75.0	+1.00
Momentum	95.4	+1.82
Quality	39.9	-0.40
Composite	70.1

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	14.6	10.0	+46% above
P/B Ratio	3.2	1.5	Above
Dividend Yield	2.0%	4.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Energy median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

546.07

Market Price

255.09

Upside

+114.1%

Margin of Safety	+53.3%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	43,175,058,871
Terminal Value PV	175,762,464,197
Total Enterprise Value	218,937,523,068

Assumptions

Base FCF	5,619,504,828
Growth Rate (5yr)	25.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

53.26%

Full Kelly

26.63%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 83/100. Estimated win rate 65%, avg win 10.0%, avg loss 3.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

75.04

RSI(14)

11.7806

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+35.4% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Energy)
RS New High	Near 3-month high 2d since high
Sector Outperformance	+20.3% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	75.04	OVERBOUGHT
Macd	11.7806	BULLISH
Ma Cross	213.54 / 170.53	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.82x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	260.68
Bollinger Upper	261.99
SMA(200)	170.53
SMA(50)	213.54
SMA(20)	240.15
Current Price	255.09
Bollinger Lower	218.31
52-Week Low	126.74
ATR(14)	7.06

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.6x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.11x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.04x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	0.98x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.82x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	247.12	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	229.97	Base line
Senkou A	238.54	Leading span A
Senkou B	212.64	Leading span B
Cloud	212.64 – 238.54	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	255.09	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	210.56	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH