Phillips 66
PSX · Energy · · USDFahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)
69
/ 100
Technical
60
Trend & RS
78
Momentum
69
Fundamental
83
Macro
24
Liquidity
72
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 60.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 78.4 | 10% |
| Momentum | 68.8 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 83.3 | 40% |
| Macro | 23.8 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 72.2 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 247.62 |
| Stop Loss | 226.78 (8.4%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 268.46 (+8.4%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 289.30 (+16.8%) |
| ATR(14) | 10.42 (4.2%) |
| Risk per Share | 20.84 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 83.6 | +1.34 | |
| Momentum | 68.8 | +0.75 | |
| Quality | 52.9 | +0.12 | |
| Composite | 68.4 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
6
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
6.68
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.9 | 10.0 | -21% below |
| P/B Ratio | 2.8 | 1.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% | 4.0% | Below avg |
Comparing against Energy median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Undervalued
Intrinsic Value
971.83
vs
Market Price
247.04
Upside
+293.4%
| Margin of Safety | +74.6% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 74,756,019,333 |
| Terminal Value PV | 304,326,213,217 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 379,082,232,550 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 9,729,964,998 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 25.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
44.89%
Full Kelly
22.45%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 69/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.1%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary BUY
3
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
34.4
RSI(14)
-3.24
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
95
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+20.5% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Energy) |
| RS New High | No (17d since high) |
| Sector Outperformance | +10.0% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 34.4 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | -3.24 | BEARISH |
| Ma Cross | 268.2 / 200.67 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | BELOW SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | LOWER BAND | |
| Volume | 0.02x | LOW |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 299.39 |
| Bollinger Upper | 308.16 |
| SMA(200) | 200.67 |
| SMA(50) | 268.2 |
| SMA(20) | 279.11 |
| Current Price | 247.04 |
| Bollinger Lower | 250.06 |
| 52-Week Low | 127.16 |
| ATR(14) | 10.42 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.41x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.04x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.97x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.83x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-06 | No Demand | 0.02x | Low volume, narrow spread, weak close — no buying interest |
Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 267.23 | Below Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 272.98 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 270.10 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 266.47 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 266.47 – 270.10 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 247.62 | Below Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 264.58 | Bearish |
| Alignment Score | 1/4 | BEARISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BEARISH FADING
BB: 250.06 – 308.16 | KC: 263.26 – 294.96
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hidden Bullish | RSI | 9 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 196.30
Anchor: 2025-12-29 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+26.1%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BEARISH
Full data via /api/advanced/PSX
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 96.36B |
| P/E (TTM) | 7.92 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.81 |
| EPS | 31.18 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 46.4% |
| Profit Margin | 7.5% |
| ROE | 39.8% |
| Debt/Equity | 52.19 |
| Current Ratio | 1.34 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.67 |
Trading Data
247.04
Open
247.04
Day High
247.04
Day Low
5.08M
Volume (1.7x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)