Phillips 66

PSX · Energy · · USD

190.50 USD

+0.00 (0.36%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 17:39 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Short-term (Swing)

/ 100

Technical 80

Trend & RS 96

Momentum 84

Fundamental (0%) 78

Macro 65

Liquidity 39

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	80.0	40%
Trend & RS	95.6	20%
Momentum	83.8	20%
Fundamental	78.1	0%
Macro	65.2	15%
Liquidity	38.8	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	190.32
Stop Loss	179.62 (5.6%)
Target 1 (1:1)	201.03 (+5.6%)
Target 2 (2:1)	211.72 (+11.2%)

ATR(14)	5.35 (2.8%)
Risk per Share	10.70
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	67.9	+0.71
Momentum	83.8	+1.35
Quality	31.1	-0.76
Composite	60.9

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 6 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 4.48 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Overvalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	18.6	10.0	+86% above
P/B Ratio	2.7	1.5	Above
Dividend Yield	2.7%	4.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Energy median multiples.

Trading at a premium to sector peers — verify growth justifies premium.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Overvalued

Intrinsic Value

155.71

Market Price

190.50

Upside

-18.3%

Margin of Safety	-22.3%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	15,482,018,727
Terminal Value PV	46,946,817,556
Total Enterprise Value	62,428,836,283

Assumptions

Base FCF	3,281,252,204
Growth Rate (5yr)	6.9%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

51.29%

Full Kelly

25.64%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 80/100. Estimated win rate 64%, avg win 9.8%, avg loss 3.4%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

68.04

RSI(14)

2.9165

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) STRONG RS

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+8.2% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Energy)
RS New High	✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal
Sector Outperformance	+14.3% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

STRONG RS: Top performer — outperforming the market and making new relative highs. Institutional accumulation likely.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	68.04	NEUTRAL
Macd	2.9165	BULLISH
Ma Cross	176.23 / 153.03	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		UPPER BAND
Volume	0.12x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	193.04
Bollinger Upper	189.65
SMA(200)	153.03
SMA(50)	176.23
SMA(20)	175.25
Current Price	190.50
Bollinger Lower	160.86
52-Week Low	118.07
ATR(14)	5.35

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.66x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.87x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	1.32x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.9x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	Normal	0.12x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	180.94	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	178.57	Base line
Senkou A	179.75	Leading span A
Senkou B	177.50	Leading span B
Cloud	177.50 – 179.75	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	190.32	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	184.68	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH