Constellation Brands, Inc.

STZ · Consumer Defensive · · USD

132.44 USD

+0.00 (1.61%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 16:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Mid-term (Position)

/ 100

Technical 0

Trend & RS 33

Momentum 26

Fundamental 44

Macro 78

Liquidity 48

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	0.0	20%
Trend & RS	32.8	30%
Momentum	25.8	15%
Fundamental	44.4	10%
Macro	78.4	20%
Liquidity	48.2	5%

Trade Setup

Entry	132.44
Stop Loss	123.02 (7.1%)
Target 1 (1:1)	141.86 (+7.1%)
Target 2 (2:1)	151.28 (+14.2%)

ATR(14)	4.71 (3.6%)
Risk per Share	9.42
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	79.5	+1.18
Momentum	25.8	-0.97
Quality	46.5	-0.14
Composite	50.6

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	12.4	18.0	-31% below
P/B Ratio	2.8	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	3.1%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value

131.72

Market Price

132.44

Upside

-0.5%

Margin of Safety	-0.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	6,000,064,379
Terminal Value PV	16,498,035,584
Total Enterprise Value	22,498,099,963

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,457,986,015
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

21.56%

Full Kelly

10.78%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 36/100. Estimated win rate 51%, avg win 7.2%, avg loss 4.3%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

37.9

RSI(14)

-3.1951

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAKENING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-22.8% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	No (61d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-6.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAKENING: Losing momentum — the stock was performing well but is now falling behind the market.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	37.9	NEUTRAL
Macd	-3.1951	BEARISH
Ma Cross	143.21 / 144.5	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.86x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	178.14
Bollinger Upper	151.18
SMA(200)	144.5
SMA(50)	143.21
SMA(20)	140.16
Current Price	132.44
Bollinger Lower	129.14
52-Week Low	126.45
ATR(14)	4.71

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence

100%

Sign of Weakness

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 3.5

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-02	Normal	0.9x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-06	Normal	1.33x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.82x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.9x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.86x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	138.40	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	139.84	Base line
Senkou A	139.12	Leading span A
Senkou B	143.93	Leading span B
Cloud	139.12 – 143.93	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	132.44	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	136.76	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH