Constellation Brands, Inc.
STZ · Consumer Defensive · · USDFahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)
52
/ 100
Technical
75
Trend & RS
59
Momentum
62
Fundamental
56
Macro
22
Liquidity
48
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 75.0 | 10% |
| Trend & RS | 58.6 | 10% |
| Momentum | 61.5 | 5% |
| Fundamental | 55.6 | 40% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 15% |
| Liquidity | 48.4 | 20% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 144.56 |
| Stop Loss | 135.96 (6.0%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 153.16 (+6.0%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 161.76 (+11.9%) |
| ATR(14) | 4.30 (3.0%) |
| Risk per Share | 8.60 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 78.8 | +1.15 | |
| Momentum | 61.5 | +0.46 | |
| Quality | 48.0 | -0.08 | |
| Composite | 62.8 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✗
✗
✓
✓
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
Insufficient Data
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.9 | 18.0 | -28% below |
| P/B Ratio | 2.9 | 2.5 | Above |
| Dividend Yield | 2.9% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued
Intrinsic Value
164.38
vs
Market Price
144.56
Upside
+13.7%
| Margin of Safety | +12.1% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 6,978,435,771 |
| Terminal Value PV | 20,838,219,661 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 27,816,655,432 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 1,512,187,603 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 6.1% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
33.73%
Full Kelly
16.87%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 52/100. Estimated win rate 56%, avg win 8.1%, avg loss 4.0%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
3
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
69.61
RSI(14)
5.049
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL
46
/ 99
RS Rating
O'Neil filter: <80
| RS vs SPY | → FLAT (+12.3% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | INLINE (Consumer Defensive) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | -1.9% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
NEUTRAL:
In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 69.61 | NEUTRAL |
| Macd | 5.049 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 125.04 / 139.25 | DEATH CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 0.98x | NORMAL |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 168.60 |
| Bollinger Upper | 145.52 |
| SMA(200) | 139.25 |
| SMA(50) | 125.04 |
| SMA(20) | 132.65 |
| Current Price | 144.56 |
| Bollinger Lower | 119.77 |
| 52-Week Low | 110.60 |
| ATR(14) | 4.3 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.5x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.23x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.04x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 1.58x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 0.98x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 138.75 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 129.58 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 134.16 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 129.58 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 129.58 – 134.16 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 144.56 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 112.10 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 119.77 – 145.52 | KC: 126.62 – 138.68
Divergences (last 60 bars)
No significant divergences detected in the last 60 bars.
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 127.83
Anchor: 2026-10-05 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+13.1%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/STZ
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 24.46B |
| P/E (TTM) | 12.94 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 2.86 |
| EPS | 11.17 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 6.1% |
| Profit Margin | 20.9% |
| ROE | 24.0% |
| Debt/Equity | 116.18 |
| Current Ratio | 1.00 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.9% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 0.40 |
Trading Data
144.56
Open
144.56
Day High
144.56
Day Low
2.16M
Volume (0.9x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)