Constellation Brands, Inc.

STZ · Consumer Defensive · · USD

132.66 USD

+0.00 (0.19%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 17:07 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 0

Trend & RS 30

Momentum 28

Fundamental 44

Macro 71

Liquidity 34

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	0.0	10%
Trend & RS	29.5	10%
Momentum	27.6	5%
Fundamental	44.4	40%
Macro	71.2	15%
Liquidity	33.6	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	133.50
Stop Loss	124.54 (6.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	142.46 (+6.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	151.42 (+13.4%)

ATR(14)	4.48 (3.4%)
Risk per Share	8.96
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	79.4	+1.18
Momentum	27.6	-0.90
Quality	46.5	-0.14
Composite	51.2

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	12.4	18.0	-31% below
P/B Ratio	2.8	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	3.1%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value

131.72

Market Price

132.66

Upside

-0.7%

Margin of Safety	-0.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	6,000,064,310
Terminal Value PV	16,498,035,399
Total Enterprise Value	22,498,099,709

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,457,985,999
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

24.35%

Full Kelly

12.17%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 40/100. Estimated win rate 52%, avg win 7.4%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

40.05

RSI(14)

-3.1759

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-28.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	No (62d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-12.4% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	40.05	NEUTRAL
Macd	-3.1759	BEARISH
Ma Cross	142.79 / 144.51	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.02x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	178.14
Bollinger Upper	151.08
SMA(200)	144.51
SMA(50)	142.79
SMA(20)	139.72
Current Price	132.66
Bollinger Lower	128.36
52-Week Low	126.45
ATR(14)	4.48

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence

100%

Sign of Weakness

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 3.5

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	1.4x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.86x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.95x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.91x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	No Supply	0.02x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	137.41	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	139.84	Base line
Senkou A	138.62	Leading span A
Senkou B	143.20	Leading span B
Cloud	138.62 – 143.20	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	133.50	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	135.40	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH