Constellation Brands, Inc.

STZ · Consumer Defensive · · USD

133.70 USD

+0.00 (0.95%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 17:37 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 0

Trend & RS 30

Momentum 28

Fundamental 53

Macro 65

Liquidity 34

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	0.0	10%
Trend & RS	29.5	10%
Momentum	28.0	5%
Fundamental	52.6	40%
Macro	65.2	15%
Liquidity	33.6	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	133.86
Stop Loss	124.80 (6.8%)
Target 1 (1:1)	142.92 (+6.8%)
Target 2 (2:1)	151.98 (+13.5%)

ATR(14)	4.53 (3.4%)
Risk per Share	9.06
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	77.0	+1.08
Momentum	28.0	-0.88
Quality	46.5	-0.14
Composite	50.5

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 3.04 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Fair Value

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	12.5	18.0	-30% below
P/B Ratio	2.9	2.5	Above
Dividend Yield	3.1%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value

131.72

Market Price

133.70

Upside

-1.5%

Margin of Safety	-1.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	5,998,243,020
Terminal Value PV	16,493,027,501
Total Enterprise Value	22,491,270,521

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,457,543,434
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

26.3%

Full Kelly

13.15%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 42/100. Estimated win rate 53%, avg win 7.5%, avg loss 4.2%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

40.75

RSI(14)

-3.1471

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-28.2% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	No (62d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-12.6% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	40.75	NEUTRAL
Macd	-3.1471	BEARISH
Ma Cross	142.8 / 144.51	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.09x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	178.14
Bollinger Upper	151.06
SMA(200)	144.51
SMA(50)	142.8
SMA(20)	139.74
Current Price	133.70
Bollinger Lower	128.42
52-Week Low	126.45
ATR(14)	4.53

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKDOWN Confidence

100%

Sign of Weakness

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 0.0 | Markdown: 3.5

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	1.4x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.86x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.95x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.91x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	No Supply	0.09x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	137.41	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	139.84	Base line
Senkou A	138.62	Leading span A
Senkou B	143.20	Leading span B
Cloud	138.62 – 143.20	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	133.86	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	135.40	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH