Constellation Brands, Inc.

STZ · Consumer Defensive · · USD

128.18 USD

0.00 (-0.70%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:34 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score SELL Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 0

Trend & RS 28

Momentum 33

Fundamental 52

Macro 64

Liquidity 44

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	0.0	10%
Trend & RS	28.3	10%
Momentum	33.2	5%
Fundamental	52.0	40%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	43.5	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	128.18
Stop Loss	122.24 (4.6%)
Target 1 (1:1)	134.12 (+4.6%)
Target 2 (2:1)	140.06 (+9.3%)

ATR(14)	2.97 (2.3%)
Risk per Share	5.94
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	78.2	+1.13
Momentum	33.2	-0.67
Quality	46.5	-0.14
Composite	52.6

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 4 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 2.98 — Grey Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	12.2	18.0	-32% below
P/B Ratio	2.7	2.5	Inline
Dividend Yield	3.2%	2.0%	Above avg

Comparing against Consumer Defensive median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Fairly Valued

Intrinsic Value

129.62

Market Price

128.18

Upside

+1.1%

Margin of Safety	+1.1%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	5,902,675,887
Terminal Value PV	16,230,251,997
Total Enterprise Value	22,132,927,884

Assumptions

Base FCF	1,434,321,092
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

27.73%

Full Kelly

13.86%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 44/100. Estimated win rate 53%, avg win 7.6%, avg loss 4.1%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG SELL

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

39.11

RSI(14)

-1.1012

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) WEAK RS

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↓ FALLING (-13.0% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	UNDERPERFORMING (Consumer Defensive)
RS New High	No (58d since high)
Sector Outperformance	-10.8% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

WEAK RS: Underperformer — the stock is lagging the market. Avoid until RS trend reverses upward.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	39.11	NEUTRAL
Macd	-1.1012	BEARISH
Ma Cross	132.64 / 143.39	DEATH CROSS
Trend Short		BELOW SMA50
Trend Long		BELOW SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.94x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	168.60
Bollinger Upper	138.89
SMA(200)	143.39
SMA(50)	132.64
SMA(20)	132.94
Current Price	128.18
Bollinger Lower	126.99
52-Week Low	126.45
ATR(14)	2.97

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

Insufficient data for Wyckoff analysis.

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.75x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.23x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	1.33x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.19x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.94x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud BEARISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	132.12	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	133.31	Base line
Senkou A	132.72	Leading span A
Senkou B	137.12	Leading span B
Cloud	132.72 – 137.12	Bearish (Red)
Price vs Cloud	128.18	Below Cloud
Chikou Span	130.23	Bearish
Alignment Score	0/4	BEARISH