Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.
SWK · Industrials · · USDFahodi Score BUY Mid-term (Position)
74
/ 100
Technical
80
Trend & RS
95
Momentum
100
Fundamental
63
Macro
22
Liquidity
68
| Component | Score | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Technical | 80.0 | 20% |
| Trend & RS | 94.7 | 30% |
| Momentum | 99.6 | 15% |
| Fundamental | 63.0 | 10% |
| Macro | 22.5 | 20% |
| Liquidity | 68.5 | 5% |
Trade Setup
| Entry | 115.27 |
| Stop Loss | 106.83 (7.3%) |
| Target 1 (1:1) | 123.71 (+7.3%) |
| Target 2 (2:1) | 132.15 (+14.6%) |
| ATR(14) | 4.22 (3.7%) |
| Risk per Share | 8.44 |
| Reward:Risk | 2:1 |
ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.
Factor Profile
| Factor | Score | Z | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | 70.1 | +0.80 | |
| Momentum | 90.5 | +1.62 | |
| Quality | 32.1 | -0.72 | |
| Composite | 64.2 | ||
Quality Scores
Piotroski F-Score
5
/9 —
Average
✓
✓
✗
✗
✓
✗
✓
✗
✓
1. Positive Net Income
2. Positive Roa
3. Positive Cfo
4. Quality Earnings
5. Lower Leverage
6. Higher Liquidity
7. No Dilution
8. Higher Gross Margin
9. Higher Asset Turnover
Altman Z-Score
3.52
—
Safe Zone
Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe
Valuation vs Peers Fair Value
| Metric | Stock | Sector | vs Peers |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.7 | 18.0 | +15% above |
| P/B Ratio | 1.9 | 3.0 | Below |
| Dividend Yield | 2.9% | 2.0% | Above avg |
Comparing against Industrials median multiples.
Intrinsic Value (DCF) Significantly Overvalued
Intrinsic Value
68.88
vs
Market Price
115.27
Upside
-40.2%
| Margin of Safety | -67.3% |
| Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF) | 2,731,660,256 |
| Terminal Value PV | 7,511,090,765 |
| Total Enterprise Value | 10,242,751,021 |
Assumptions
| Base FCF | 663,779,953 |
| Growth Rate (5yr) | 2.0% |
| Terminal Growth | 2.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.0% |
2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.
Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion
4.6%
Recommended Size
47.87%
Full Kelly
23.94%
Half Kelly
5.0%
Max Cap (Moderate)
Kelly inputs derived from quant score 74/100. Estimated win rate 62%, avg win 9.4%, avg loss 3.5%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.
RECOVERY
Regime: RECOVERY (40% confidence) — position size reduced 8%
Signal Summary STRONG BUY
4
Bullish Signals
1
Bearish Signals
75.83
RSI(14)
5.3171
MACD
Relative Strength (RS) STRONG RS
86
/ 99
RS Rating
✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)
| RS vs SPY | ↑ RISING (+16.9% vs SPY 3M) |
| RS vs Sector | OUTPERFORMING (Industrials) |
| RS New High | ✓ RS at 3-month high Institutional accumulation signal |
| Sector Outperformance | +13.8% (3M) |
RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)
← older
newer →
RS vs SPY
50-day SMA of RS
STRONG RS:
Top performer — outperforming the market and making new relative highs. Institutional accumulation likely.
Technical Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Rsi | 75.83 | OVERBOUGHT |
| Macd | 5.3171 | BULLISH |
| Ma Cross | 94.27 / 85.0 | GOLDEN CROSS |
| Trend Short | ABOVE SMA50 | |
| Trend Long | ABOVE SMA200 | |
| Bollinger | MIDDLE | |
| Volume | 1.8x | HIGH |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | 122.68 |
| Bollinger Upper | 115.28 |
| SMA(200) | 85.0 |
| SMA(50) | 94.27 |
| SMA(20) | 98.67 |
| Current Price | 115.27 |
| Bollinger Lower | 82.06 |
| 52-Week Low | 61.90 |
| ATR(14) | 4.22 |
Advanced Technical Analysis
Click to expand
Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis
Wyckoff Phase
MARKUP
Confidence
100%
Sign of Strength
Acc: 0.0 |
Dist: 0.0 |
Markup: 3.5 |
Markdown: 0.0
Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)
| Date | Signal | Vol | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Normal | 1.12x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-02 | Normal | 1.1x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-03 | Normal | 1.3x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-04 | Normal | 3.62x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
| 2026-11-05 | Normal | 1.8x | Normal bar — no special VSA pattern |
Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH
| Line | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Tenkan-sen (9) | 110.52 | Above Kijun |
| Kijun-sen (26) | 104.19 | Base line |
| Senkou A | 107.35 | Leading span A |
| Senkou B | 104.19 | Leading span B |
| Cloud | 104.19 – 107.35 | Bullish (Green) |
| Price vs Cloud | 115.27 | Above Cloud |
| Chikou Span | 89.59 | Bullish |
| Alignment Score | 4/4 | BULLISH |
TTM Squeeze & Divergences
TTM Squeeze
SQUEEZE OFF
No squeeze
Momentum:
BULLISH FADING
BB: 82.06 – 115.28 | KC: 93.0 – 104.34
Divergences (last 60 bars)
| Type | Indicator | Bars Ago | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 22 | |
| Hidden Bearish | RSI | 25 | |
| Regular Bullish | RSI | 27 |
Anchored VWAP
VWAP: 83.08
Anchor: 2025-11-19 (52w Low)
ABOVE AVWAP
+38.7%
Heikin-Ashi Trend
BULLISH
Full data via /api/advanced/SWK
Valuation
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Cap | 17.14B |
| P/E (TTM) | 20.66 |
| Forward P/E | N/A |
| P/B | 1.94 |
| EPS | 5.58 |
Financial Health
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -0.7% |
| Profit Margin | 5.5% |
| ROE | 9.4% |
| Debt/Equity | 58.25 |
| Current Ratio | 1.42 |
| Dividend Yield | 2.9% |
| Payout Ratio | N/A |
| Beta | 1.16 |
Trading Data
115.27
Open
115.27
Day High
115.27
Day Low
3.22M
Volume (1.9x avg)
Price Chart (90 Days)
Candlesticks (green=up, red=down)
SMA 20
SMA 50
Bollinger Bands (upper/lower)
Volume (green=buying, red=selling)