The Travelers Companies, Inc.

TRV · Financial Services · · USD

336.36 USD

0.00 (-0.33%)

● Updated 2026-07-10 18:08 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score BUY Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 100

Trend & RS 90

Momentum 79

Fundamental 78

Macro 65

Liquidity 38

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	100.0	10%
Trend & RS	89.9	10%
Momentum	79.1	5%
Fundamental	77.8	40%
Macro	65.2	15%
Liquidity	38.5	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	336.31
Stop Loss	322.51 (4.1%)
Target 1 (1:1)	350.11 (+4.1%)
Target 2 (2:1)	363.91 (+8.2%)

ATR(14)	6.90 (2.0%)
Risk per Share	13.80
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	84.2	+1.37
Momentum	79.1	+1.17
Quality	40.5	-0.38
Composite	68.0

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score 5.47 — Safe Zone

Distress <1.81Grey 1.81–2.99>2.99 Safe

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	10.0	18.0	-44% below
P/B Ratio	2.2	2.5	Below
Dividend Yield	1.5%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

413.67

Market Price

336.36

Upside

+23.0%

Margin of Safety	+18.7%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	23,459,649,285
Terminal Value PV	64,505,662,674
Total Enterprise Value	87,965,311,959

Assumptions

Base FCF	5,700,578,930
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.8%

Recommended Size

46.64%

Full Kelly

23.32%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 72/100. Estimated win rate 61%, avg win 9.3%, avg loss 3.6%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

RECOVERY Regime: RECOVERY (20% confidence) — position size reduced 4%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

66.34

RSI(14)

10.0268

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) IMPROVING

/ 99

RS Rating

O'Neil filter: <80

RS vs SPY	↑ RISING (+0.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High	No (3d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+2.9% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

IMPROVING: Gaining momentum — the stock is starting to outperform the market. Watch for RS new high confirmation.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	66.34	NEUTRAL
Macd	10.0268	BULLISH
Ma Cross	308.41 / 291.55	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.1x	LOW

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	349.35
Bollinger Upper	351.89
SMA(200)	291.55
SMA(50)	308.41
SMA(20)	323.19
Current Price	336.36
Bollinger Lower	294.48
52-Week Low	249.19
ATR(14)	6.9

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-07-06	Normal	0.71x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-07	Normal	0.71x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-08	Normal	0.79x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-09	Normal	0.64x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-07-10	No Supply	0.1x	Low volume, narrow spread, firm close — no selling pressure

Ichimoku Cloud BULLISH

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	337.44	Above Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	318.55	Base line
Senkou A	327.99	Leading span A
Senkou B	317.63	Leading span B
Cloud	317.63 – 327.99	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	336.31	Above Cloud
Chikou Span	288.74	Bullish
Alignment Score	4/4	BULLISH