The Travelers Companies, Inc.

TRV · Financial Services · · USD

369.35 USD

0.00 (-1.33%)

● Updated 2026-09-07 20:35 Saudi Time ↻ Refresh

Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Fahodi Score HOLD Long-term (Investment)

/ 100

Technical 75

Trend & RS 86

Momentum 76

Fundamental 56

Macro 64

Liquidity 46

Component	Score	Weight
Technical	75.0	10%
Trend & RS	85.6	10%
Momentum	75.9	5%
Fundamental	55.6	40%
Macro	64.4	15%
Liquidity	45.5	20%

Trade Setup

Entry	369.35
Stop Loss	355.55 (3.7%)
Target 1 (1:1)	383.15 (+3.7%)
Target 2 (2:1)	396.95 (+7.5%)

ATR(14)	6.90 (1.9%)
Risk per Share	13.80
Reward:Risk	2:1

ATR-based levels. Adjust for support/resistance zones.

Factor Profile

Factor	Score	Z
Value	84.9	+1.40
Momentum	75.9	+1.04
Quality	42.3	-0.31
Composite	67.7

Quality Scores

Piotroski F-Score 5 /9 — Average

✓ ✓ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✗ ✓ ✓ ✗

1. Positive Net Income 2. Positive Roa 3. Positive Cfo 4. Quality Earnings 5. Lower Leverage 6. Higher Liquidity 7. No Dilution 8. Higher Gross Margin 9. Higher Asset Turnover

Altman Z-Score Insufficient Data

Valuation vs Peers Undervalued

Metric	Stock	Sector	vs Peers
P/E Ratio	9.9	18.0	-45% below
P/B Ratio	2.3	2.5	Inline
Dividend Yield	1.4%	2.0%	Below avg

Comparing against Financial Services median multiples.

Trading at a discount to sector peers — potential value opportunity.

Intrinsic Value (DCF) Undervalued

Intrinsic Value

459.10

Market Price

369.35

Upside

+24.3%

Margin of Safety	+19.5%
Stage 1 PV (5yr FCF)	25,537,654,525
Terminal Value PV	70,219,435,431
Total Enterprise Value	95,757,089,956

Assumptions

Base FCF	6,205,523,942
Growth Rate (5yr)	2.0%
Terminal Growth	2.5%
Discount Rate (WACC)	9.0%

2-stage DCF: 5yr projected FCF + Gordon Growth terminal value. Estimates only — adjust growth and WACC for your own assumptions.

Position Sizing — Kelly Criterion

4.5%

Recommended Size

40.03%

Full Kelly

20.02%

Half Kelly

5.0%

Max Cap (Moderate)

Kelly inputs derived from quant score 61/100. Estimated win rate 58%, avg win 8.7%, avg loss 3.8%. Position was capped at the moderate risk maximum. This is analytical output, not a recommendation to trade.

BEAR Regime: BEAR (20% confidence) — position size reduced 10%

Signal Summary STRONG BUY

Bullish Signals

Bearish Signals

51.97

RSI(14)

1.2475

MACD

Relative Strength (RS) NEUTRAL

/ 99

RS Rating

✓ O'Neil PASS (≥80)

RS vs SPY	→ FLAT (+17.6% vs SPY 3M)
RS vs Sector	OUTPERFORMING (Financial Services)
RS New High	No (28d since high)
Sector Outperformance	+14.2% (3M)

RS Line — stock / SPY (90 bars)

← older newer →

RS vs SPY 50-day SMA of RS

NEUTRAL: In line with the market — no strong outperformance or underperformance.

Technical Indicators

Indicator	Value	Signal
Rsi	51.97	NEUTRAL
Macd	1.2475	BEARISH
Ma Cross	363.14 / 311.09	GOLDEN CROSS
Trend Short		ABOVE SMA50
Trend Long		ABOVE SMA200
Bollinger		MIDDLE
Volume	0.75x	NORMAL

Key Levels

Level	Price
52-Week High	398.70
Bollinger Upper	376.52
SMA(200)	311.09
SMA(50)	363.14
SMA(20)	368.74
Current Price	369.35
Bollinger Lower	360.96
52-Week Low	252.26
ATR(14)	6.9

Advanced Technical Analysis

Click to expand

Wyckoff Phase & Volume Spread Analysis

Wyckoff Phase

MARKUP Confidence

100%

Acc: 0.0 | Dist: 0.0 | Markup: 2.0 | Markdown: 0.0

Volume Spread Analysis (last 5 bars)

Date	Signal	Vol	Description
2026-08-31	Normal	1.2x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-01	Normal	1.09x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-02	Normal	0.76x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-03	Normal	1.04x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern
2026-09-04	Normal	0.75x	Normal bar — no special VSA pattern

Ichimoku Cloud NEUTRAL

Line	Value	Status
Tenkan-sen (9)	369.89	Below Kijun
Kijun-sen (26)	372.74	Base line
Senkou A	371.31	Leading span A
Senkou B	357.56	Leading span B
Cloud	357.56 – 371.31	Bullish (Green)
Price vs Cloud	369.35	Inside Cloud
Chikou Span	374.36	Bearish
Alignment Score	1/4	NEUTRAL